According to reports I have read, the flu kills approximately 13 people per thousand and coronavirus is killing approximately 200 people per thousand in China. Coronavirus is stated to be easily spreadable, like the flu. Some reports, currently considered alarmist, are stating coronavirus could easily become a pandemic.
Are you ready to quarantine yourself if coronavirus does become a pandemic?
Basically we are looking here at a cold virus. They say we may be missing a lot of the numbers because often those mildly affected (it's a cold) are not reporting. Those who are dying may therefore be seeming like a higher percentage than really exists. NPR and other places has excellent short things about it.
Personally, I am one of those weirdos who think it is a bad thing that man has no natural enemies anymore, worry about overpopulation eventually taking us down. We need culling. But I think this isn't going to be the one to do it.
Of course it MIGHT be. Time will tell. Now, thinking about how few are dead worldwide, this just isn't it.
The situation was accelerated by the deliberate ignorance of the Chinese government, suppressing information which could have changed the course of the disease.
This is the best analytical article I've seen, addressing how Chinese control prevented steps from having been taken earlier.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/early-missteps-and-state-secrecy-in-china-probably-allowed-the-coronavirus-to-spread-farther-and-faster/ar-BBZya9o?ocid=spartandhp
I think the reactions of other countries are not only logical and preventive, but send a message to the Chinese government that it's a factor in the rapid spread of the disease. Totalitarian governments can't expect to ignore critical health factors in this global economy and anticipate that other governments will tolerate its suppression of facts for its own purpose.
Regardless of whether countries are overacting, this sends a message to the Chinese (not that it necessarily will affect a totalitarian regime). The Chinese are going to lose monetarily b/c of their obsession with controlling the public and the press. (If you want to see how far control has advanced, watch the PBS documentary on AI). The 4th section is on Chinese government monitoring of its citizens.
So, yes, I will wear a mask when I go to public areas, not just b/c of the Coronavirus but also because many people in general just don't take appropriate measures for their own health.
I’m more concerned if it’s moving into fecal transmission. The N95 masks & handwashing do work for respiratory / airborne stuff. They work well for TB, SARS, flu. Are great for dealing with pollution or odd air situations (like pepper roasting). They work well if used correctly.
But if this goes fecal, it’s imo is going to be way way lots harder to control. China, like other parts of the world, still has “squat” toilets. In rural areas and older housing especially. If you’ve never encountered them, well it’s pretty horrific. It takes sh** show to a whole new definition. Sanitary they are not. Often the water tank is also the source of household water & drawn communally from. So if tank empty, no “flushing”. I think this is why provinces are being closed off; so controlling both airborne & fecal.
I’m watching: www.gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com
Its really so far just Hubei province (where Wuhan is) that has the scary #s. Feb 18-20 should tell if true pandemic imo.
Btw current administration, in 2018, totally eliminated the US govt. pandemic response team led by Ronald Klain. The complex crisis fund (30M) was eliminated totally. Plus cuts to CDC, NSC, HHS for trans global epidemic response. US not prepared to deal with pandemic. Laurie Garrett at Foreign Policy has great article just out on this.
Sending delivery drivers from household to household is not exactly my idea of rigorous quarantine. Still! - it's extended the New Year holiday, plus it makes people feel that at least they're doing *something.*
In that it is already being detected worldwide, this coronavirus is a pandemic. Most sufferers feel a bit rubbish for a few days. Your odds of survival are excellent.
Don't forget that in order to estimate the lethality of a given infection, you have first to know how many people die out of the total number infected. If virtually everybody in a massive city has caught it but most people aren't even ill enough to have told a doctor about it, it's not that lethal - even if dozens or hundreds in total have died.
Thought I'd better look it up just to be sure:
Information about the virus
A coronavirus is a type of virus. As a group, coronaviruses are common across the world. Typical symptoms of coronavirus include fever and a cough that may progress to a severe pneumonia causing shortness of breath and breathing difficulties.
Generally, coronavirus can cause more severe symptoms in people with weakened immune systems, older people, and those with long-term conditions like diabetes, cancer and chronic lung disease.
Novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is a new strain of coronavirus first identified in Wuhan City, China.
I don't who reported that this new virus is killing 20% of its victims. I'm pretty sure it isn't. As far as I can found out, it is estimated to have killed approximately 200 people so far in China, altogether. I expect those people's families are still pretty cut up about it, mind, I don't mean to say "no big deal" or anything.
The World Health Organization has this link for public information:
https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses
Common flu has a death rate of 0.13% or 13 deaths for every 1000 infections in the USA. If the China death rate holds in more developed countries, coronavirus would be MORE THAN 15 TIMES as deadly as the common flu.
You may think the death rate would be lower in industrial countries, and it may be initially; however, as more people are infected and our health care systems are overloaded, the death rate may match China's as people survive from their own resources with more family and self care than medical care.
Consider what happens when flu season peaks or a bad storm is expected. Now multiply that by at least 15. If illness has a significant impact on transportation systems it could be even worse.
If my memory serves, historically pandemics occur every 80-120 years and the Spanish flu went around the world from 1917-1919 so we might be due for another pandemic.
In my parents' home, my mother raised and canned or filled a freezer from a garden. The basement pump room contained much of the food our family needed for 6-10 months except for flour and sugar which Mom had 3-6 months supply in the pantry. When the avian flu scare and Katrina came along, the family had 5 small children and I realized everyone had grown so accustomed to just in time shopping, we could all go hungry if a pandemic or weather event interrupted transportation services for more than a few days.
So I started stock piling some extra medications (OTC and scripts), food, bottled water, filters and purification tablets (for using the well or creek on my property instead of the regional utility water), and electrolyte drink mixes. Recently I added incontinence supplies and white vinegar. I don't raise a garden or do major canning, but I have some home canned food including concentrated chicken and beef broth. I've been stocking up on pasta and 12 oz cans of chicken for a protein base as well as a few cases of canned evaporated milk, vegetables and soups with dehydrated onions and other seasonings. If I lose power, I have a propane stove and could save the contents of my freezer with canning. I also have a whole house generator and an underground propane tank to fuel it for a while. With my asthma, I'm not likely to survive any major respiratory infection, but my supplies could enable me to avoid an infection by quarantining myself or provide better odds for the grandchildren. The Spanish flu often killed more by dehydration than respiratory distress.
The extended family (as I sure many of you will too) views this stock piling habit with amusement. A few years back my nephew showed up at my door one afternoon to collect some pedialyte because his three children under 5 (including a 10 month old) were ill during peak flu season and he couldn't find any in the local or nearby major city stores (he had visited a few and called others). He seems a bit more understanding since needing to access the stock pile. A 3 day stay over when a winter ice storm prevented his family from getting to their rural home gave another nephew an appreciation for a whole house generator and a fully stocked freezer.
While I agree coronavirus has not become a major concern outside of China yet, it does have the potential to become one and the death rate is alarming if it holds over larger infected populations. Since I stock pile routinely, surely it won't surprised anyone if I recommend everyone consider stocking up on a few weeks of basic supplies so self quarantine is an available option.
"In addition to respiratory droplets, the novel coronavirus that has sickened thousands globally may also transmit through the digestive tract, specifically the fecal-oral route, according to a report.
Scientists from the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Science recently discovered “virus genetic material” in stool samples and rectal swabs from some patients, Chinese state media reported, according to Bloomberg.
Some patients infected with the novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, had reported diarrhea when they first fell ill, and not a fever, which has been a more common sign of the pneumonia-like illness. The finding is significant because researchers have largely focused on transmission via respiratory droplets from an infected person.
The first of the now 11 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the U.S. had suffered from diarrhea before falling ill with the disease, according to Bloomberg."
If both fecal and airborne, it will change the game board & big time. If so, I’d start prepping to stay at home as much as possible for 60 days. I Hurricane prep between Mother’s Day & Father’s Day, so I’d just move it up but add couple cases of scented bleach & a bundle of red head trigger spray bottles, a case of WetWipes and cheap cellulose sponges. A handle of Fabuloso, bundle of paper towels and 2 gallon freezer grade ziplocks to put used cleaning stuff into. A Big Lots type of buy.
Diarrhea is pretty common with temps. That some confirmed have had diarrhea isn’t surprising. Folks get stress related diarrhea (think Adriana in The Sopranos, she was hourly potty stops towards her finale). If it’s all this, I’m not worried. Butt (pun intended) if 2019-nCOV goes fecal transmission, that gonna be hard to get control on. Schools, stores, gyms, movie theaters, libraries, really anything requiring public bathrooms to be open will likely close. More telecommuting for work.
On another forum I’m on, huge discussion on unprecedented move China did on 1/24 with movie theaters. This is what had me thinking about non-airborne transmission. What China did was close every single movie theatre. 70,000 screens. 1B loss estimates for first week closure as this was over Chinese New Year. Which is like going to movies are for Xmas here. Think all movie screens close down simultaneously in US & Canada. Then double that. Huge. But why theatres when schools, stores left open. Opinions were that lots of various foodstuffs, market like vendors, lousy bathrooms unless your in a very western style one, and your there 2-3 hrs so going to use public bathroom. Only at end of day does anything get cleaned. I bet done in an abundance of caution if fecal transmission might could be.
The WHO has an “F diagram” how fecal happens. Quite informative but graphic. Hard to contain as everyone has their own acceptability on what “hygiene” is. Really the first time I saw a “squat” toilet, I so freaked out. Finding a field was better.
Paint supply stores seem to still have masks. I’d add couple boxes of medical grade gloves & Tena liners to my prepper shopping list just to be more ready. Really I think by Feb 18-20 at latest we should know what transmission path actually is & hard data on confirmed/ recovered / dead. Everybody wash your hands, clean your kitchen & bathrooms & do laundry!
All this seems to have occurred within last 36 hours.
This is going to be unbelievable challenge for US health care system.
Facilities should have an emergency plan of some sort based on a pneumonia or CDiff outbreak OR weather emergency.
For us, both the LA & TX NHs that my mom & mil were in were mainly based on weather / hurricane with shelter in place as the first / main choice unless an evacuation was called. We got a form in June as to what their plan was & if the moms were to stay with the facility (so moved en masse with everyone), or were to get picked up by family (& who with our contact info). LTC skilled nursing care have to have some sort of emergency plan. AL & IL do not as in theory if your living there you are ok on your ADLs and need some help but not required help.
For MC, I’m not sure where that category falls. If anyone know, please do a post. thanks.
Folks wash your hands and often.
Get your medications refilled if you can.
I’m prepping along the lines of what I posted earlier this month & did add a box of inexpensive exam gloves and a box of synthetic 6 mil nitrite gloves & a bundle of Viva paper towels. Refilled all meds we could. And more liquor.
stay safe & don’t panic!
As of yesterday Canada had 14 cases, none fatal and many were recovering, none hospitalized. I have friends in Nigeria and it has been interesting to see what they are being told compared to here in Canada. The one constant is washing of hands.
I traveled during the SARS outbreak and will be traveling this May down to King County. I have a friend who is planning a trip to Thailand in May. He is second guessing his plans.
I will be watching to see if the event I plan to attend will go ahead if the virus spreads. It is a big event attracting people from WA, OR, ID and BC.
Anyone can watch videos now online on how to properly wash your hands.
The first hand wash of the day should be up to your elbows. Watch a few surgical scrubs as a guideline. Or just the usual hand wash techniques, some of which forget to wash the wrists.
Sanitize your kitchens and bathrooms, especially doorknobs and faucett handles. Include light switches.
Decrease your risk of infecting yourself or others:
Wash your hands often. This is especially important before and after preparing food, before eating and after using the toilet.
Get vaccinated. Immunization can drastically reduce your chances of contracting many diseases. Keep your recommended vaccinations up-to-date.
Use antibiotics sensibly. Take antibiotics only when prescribed. Unless otherwise directed, or unless you are allergic to them, take all prescribed doses of your antibiotic, even if you begin to feel better before you have completed the medication.
Stay at home if you have signs and symptoms of an infection. Don't go to work or class if you're vomiting, have diarrhea or are running a fever.
Be smart about food preparation. Keep counters and other kitchen surfaces clean when preparing meals. In addition, promptly refrigerate leftovers. Don't let cooked foods remain at room temperature for an extended period of time.
Disinfect the 'hot zones' in your residence. These include the kitchen and bathroom — two rooms that can have a high concentration of bacteria and other infectious agents.
Don't share personal items. Use your own toothbrush, comb or razor blade. Avoid sharing drinking glasses or dining utensils.
Travel wisely. Don't fly when you're ill. With so many people confined to such a small area, you may infect other passengers in the plane. And your trip won't be comfortable, either. Depending on where your travels take you, talk to your doctor about any special immunizations you may need.
With a little common sense and the proper precautions, you can avoid infectious diseases and avoid spreading them.
I believe it when people are instructed not to hug, shake hands at church for example. So I have to remind my hubs when he goes out.
Traveling in a public bus would not be recommended by the experts who know better. The general public does not understand.
My hubs said there was no one on the bus. So he felt he was ok.
FOMITES. The bacteria and viruses can live on hard surfaces for 9 days.
What is a fomite, you ask? Well, if you are not rolling your eyes, you may be asking.
Fomite - Wikipedia
A fomes (pronounced /ˈfoʊmiːz/) or fomite (/ˈfoʊmaɪt/) is any inanimate object that, when contaminated with or exposed to infectious agents (such as pathogenic bacteria, viruses or fungi), can transfer disease to a new host. (YOU, New Host would be you).
Sometimes with enough information, we can calmly figure these things out.
Last updated: March 04, 2020, 19:05 GMT
Given only the # of reported cases (consider how many more there might be unreported, because for many people this virus is no worse than a common cold and the seek no treatment, therefore they are not counted - that would change/lessen the percentage of deaths/person infected), the number of deaths are not yet leading to me thinking this is going to be much more than the SARs scare was.
# cases: 95079
# deaths: 3249
Using ONLY these numbers one could surmise that the death rate is 3.4%, BUT consider this:
Of the 3249 deaths, MOST are in China. If you combine numbers for the "big 4" (China, Italy, Iran and S. Korea), there have, to date, only been 34 deaths in ALL the other reporting countries (79 + Diamond Princess) combined. Only 11 of those 80 have reported deaths. MANY of the deaths (esp those in WA) are older people and/or had co-morbid conditions (many of the WA cases came from the same LTC facility.)
Additionally, this site has ESTIMATED %ages of death based on age and gender brackets. Only when you get above age 50 does the ESTIMATED number rise above .4%. It gets higher for each age bracket going up.
Again, these numbers and estimates are ONLY based on actual or suspected cases - they do NOT include those who may have contracted the virus, but had little or no symptoms and sought no treatment, therefore are not included in the head count!
If you happen to be older, live in/near places having higher %ages of cases, and esp if you have other serious medical conditions, then you have reason for more concern and more caution. The current media scare tactics are overdoing it for the rest of us (and impacting the stock market/economy!!!)!
Be/stay informed, sure. Take simple precautions, sure. Panic? Why? Others mention how many have died this year alone from the flu (~12000 in the US alone.) 24 confirmed dead (some still missing) in less than a day due to a tornado in TN! About 40000/year die in car crashes! PANIC!!! Get rid of your cars!!!! I'm not about to dig up other stats, but given these comparisons, this virus is small potatoes.
It does also sound like the further from China this spreads, the less deadly it has become, which is often the case as the virus mutates. Many of the people outside of the 4 big hitters actually traveled to one of those "big" hitterss too. Given we have about 327 MILLION people in the US alone, the current 137 cases seems very very low and is not concerning me. Sad for those who died and their friends and families, but seriously, 137 cases, 9 dead and we're seeing Armageddon??
No clue yet who patient 0 is yet for WA state, but clearly the worst case happened there with LTC/ill patients being infected somehow by this patient 0. NOTE: In the latest reports, it indicate the first case in NC had ties to the WA location. So, it's all in who you know...
For those who are condoning sanitizing your home - doing it now, before anyone is sick might give you squeaky clean house, but provide a false sense of security. If the virus isn't in your home when you do this, you won't be protecting yourself against it!
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronaviruses-how-long-can-they-survive-on-surfaces
remember WHO was still advocating airline travel with China in January..... felt the economic impact would be too great to stop air travel. Even though Chinese scientists were reporting human to human transmission....but, couldn’t hurt the economy! Well, our incompetent government is making it worse too. This will spread unchecked and unseen here.
so, we need to accept that this virus will be added to the annual flu....like N1H1. The goal now is to slow it down.
every individual needs to take all measures to ensure they do not catch it. Each of us must take up this ... we are now the firebreak. Act as though every person you are in the same room with has this virus. Wash your hands ... sing happy birthday twice. I watch a woman wash her hands yesterday...she barely had time to get the soap on before rinsing it off.
as a community...we here will see this impact far greater than the general population. We have elderly in our care...the highest risk. We protect ourselves and through that protect them.
My niece told her mom that her doctor said that the media is over-exaggerating the Coronavirus flu. He said it's just like any other flu. Niece believes him... It is Not like any other flu. It is very contagious. The virus is so tiny, that regular face masks are useless. One needs those respirator face masks (similar to what painters use.) It's a one-time use - and there is a special way of putting it on /taking it off. It must completely cover your face (as in no openings on the sides.)
Your body does not gain any immunity from it after you have recovered from it. You can get it again - as proven by at least 2 people...
By the way, I saw videos of Wuhan. In the beginning, the gov't was dragging whole families (if one person was sick) out of their apartment into a van. Because of the widespread, the gov't is now welding their apartment doors shut. When I first saw this, I wondered how they were going to get their food??? The next day, I was telling sis this. Sis said that the gov't is going to prevent it from spreading by locking down the whole city. Everyone is going to die in there. That's why they're welding the doors. They're not going to let anyone out of that city... like in the movies.
At a guess, I'd say those two people had the virus *still*, rather than had it twice. I've heard no information that they tested negative in between, have you?; so perhaps, as happens with glandular fever for example, those two were unfortunate in that their symptoms returned after an initial recovery.
It is clear that enormous numbers of people have had the illness so mildly that they haven't even suspected it (and there will be even more who haven't been tested, either).
This is not 'flu at all. It is an entirely different type of virus. Because it is novel and no population has natural immunity it will spread very quickly, but that tells you nothing at all about how dangerous it is.
What's niggling me at the moment is that at the end of last year, October or November, I caught a horrible bug - rapid onset but mild fever, and then a horrible racking cough that went on for a good week or two until I finally shook it off. Everyone had it, I didn't think anything of it. But now I'm wondering just how sure the WHO is about the source of Covid-19 and whether it only came to light because of its emergence in extremely large, crowded centres of population like in Wuhan.
In any case imagining Great Plague scenarios, with whole families locked in their houses and left to die by unfeeling governments and frightened communities, is really not going to help.
Hopefully it is something simple and you recover quickly.
Prays and hugs for and to you.
I don't have asthma, but perhaps some things I've discovered might help, although a doctor's visit would probably provide more information and relief for you.
I've had major sinus problems which began with passing out while in my teens, but which abated over the years. For whatever reasons (which I discovered later), this started again about a week ago - pressure in the eustachian tubes, slow drainage, thicker mucous, a LOT of coughing, and of course some anxiety as to whether this was just the old sinus problem or something new.
I had no cough drops and was too lazy to drive out to get some, so I used the tea routine, heating a tea bag (I had no fresh herbs) and inhaling the vapors, eventually loosening the blockage. The coughing has almost abated, but the biggest thing I've discovered is the cause: paczkis. Chocolate is also a contributing factor.
I like the Bavarian crème paczkis, and, well, being honest admit that I may have overindulged. That's when the problem started. Eliminating paczkis plus the teas have helped, and testing with a paczki or chocolates started the pressure buildup again.
During the suffering period I realized how dry the air was, and that the electronic furnace filter needed cleaning. I ran a big HEPA room air filter, and added smaller air filters to buy for other rooms. The humidifier on the furnace seems to be worthless; I think localized units are preferable.
I'm guessing you probably already have room air filters, or moisturizers?
I'm still researching on how sugar can affect airways and nasal passages, but sugar isn't on the good things to eat list in the first place.