Coronavirus - a possible pandemic?

Perhaps all the religious people on the site can pray hard for the quick development of a successful vaccine. And pray for the researchers working on it.

Some states have a higher risk than others. I read that Missouri is like an epicenter for the flu. People are panicking and buying out the markets. Don't know if it is the flu or the Coronavirus that has them afraid, or in a generalized panic over everything, including the stock market. The stock market declines every election year, by history.

Sometimes with enough information, we can calmly figure these things out.

Educate your family and those you live with.

I believe it when people are instructed not to hug, shake hands at church for example. So I have to remind my hubs when he goes out.

Traveling in a public bus would not be recommended by the experts who know better. The general public does not understand.
My hubs said there was no one on the bus. So he felt he was ok.
FOMITES. The bacteria and viruses can live on hard surfaces for 9 days.

What is a fomite, you ask? Well, if you are not rolling your eyes, you may be asking.

Fomite - Wikipedia
A fomes (pronounced /ˈfoʊmiːz/) or fomite (/ˈfoʊmaɪt/) is any inanimate object that, when contaminated with or exposed to infectious agents (such as pathogenic bacteria, viruses or fungi), can transfer disease to a new host. (YOU, New Host would be you).

Preventing the Spread of Infectious Diseases:

Decrease your risk of infecting yourself or others:
Wash your hands often. This is especially important before and after preparing food, before eating and after using the toilet.

Get vaccinated. Immunization can drastically reduce your chances of contracting many diseases. Keep your recommended vaccinations up-to-date.

Use antibiotics sensibly. Take antibiotics only when prescribed. Unless otherwise directed, or unless you are allergic to them, take all prescribed doses of your antibiotic, even if you begin to feel better before you have completed the medication.

Stay at home if you have signs and symptoms of an infection. Don't go to work or class if you're vomiting, have diarrhea or are running a fever.

Be smart about food preparation. Keep counters and other kitchen surfaces clean when preparing meals. In addition, promptly refrigerate leftovers. Don't let cooked foods remain at room temperature for an extended period of time.

Disinfect the 'hot zones' in your residence. These include the kitchen and bathroom — two rooms that can have a high concentration of bacteria and other infectious agents.

Don't share personal items. Use your own toothbrush, comb or razor blade. Avoid sharing drinking glasses or dining utensils.

Travel wisely. Don't fly when you're ill. With so many people confined to such a small area, you may infect other passengers in the plane. And your trip won't be comfortable, either. Depending on where your travels take you, talk to your doctor about any special immunizations you may need.

With a little common sense and the proper precautions, you can avoid infectious diseases and avoid spreading them.

Be prepared.

Anyone can watch videos now online on how to properly wash your hands.
The first hand wash of the day should be up to your elbows. Watch a few surgical scrubs as a guideline. Or just the usual hand wash techniques, some of which forget to wash the wrists.

Sanitize your kitchens and bathrooms, especially doorknobs and faucett handles. Include light switches.

I have been following the news on the spread of Covid-19. I am not worried for myself, I am in good health and wash my hands.

As of yesterday Canada had 14 cases, none fatal and many were recovering, none hospitalized. I have friends in Nigeria and it has been interesting to see what they are being told compared to here in Canada. The one constant is washing of hands.

I traveled during the SARS outbreak and will be traveling this May down to King County. I have a friend who is planning a trip to Thailand in May. He is second guessing his plans.

I will be watching to see if the event I plan to attend will go ahead if the virus spreads. It is a big event attracting people from WA, OR, ID and BC.

Think cold virus. So far death rate is estimated at 2%. That is quite low from any epidemic. The flu this season has taken out many many many more than this is likely to. It seems to be hitting elderly and those with pre-existing illnesses hardest and of course will quickly spread in any ALF or memory care units it hits. Be aware. Use excellent hand washing. The flu will enter facility doors with YOU, and with workers in the facility but will quickly spread. This is a new cold virus. While they speak of a vaccine I think that is to comfort us, as so far no vaccine has been found for other cold virus types. There is a lot of media hysteria, so try to avoid that for certain.

As of today, like 1:00 PT, Covid-19 has spread to a LTC facility in WA state. Resident F70’s in serious condition AND an employee 40s stable condition; 27 other residents & 25 employees with symptoms. Facility has 108 residents and 180 employees.
All this seems to have occurred within last 36 hours.

This is going to be unbelievable challenge for US health care system.

Facilities should have an emergency plan of some sort based on a pneumonia or CDiff outbreak OR weather emergency.

For us, both the LA & TX NHs that my mom & mil were in were mainly based on weather / hurricane with shelter in place as the first / main choice unless an evacuation was called. We got a form in June as to what their plan was & if the moms were to stay with the facility (so moved en masse with everyone), or were to get picked up by family (& who with our contact info). LTC skilled nursing care have to have some sort of emergency plan. AL & IL do not as in theory if your living there you are ok on your ADLs and need some help but not required help.
For MC, I’m not sure where that category falls. If anyone know, please do a post. thanks.

Folks wash your hands and often.
Get your medications refilled if you can.
I’m prepping along the lines of what I posted earlier this month & did add a box of inexpensive exam gloves and a box of synthetic 6 mil nitrite gloves & a bundle of Viva paper towels. Refilled all meds we could. And more liquor.
stay safe & don’t panic!

TNtechie, like I said earlier, if it does move to easily spread via fecal transmission, that is what I’d be concerned about. Not panic but concerned.
If both fecal and airborne, it will change the game board & big time. If so, I’d start prepping to stay at home as much as possible for 60 days. I Hurricane prep between Mother’s Day & Father’s Day, so I’d just move it up but add couple cases of scented bleach & a bundle of red head trigger spray bottles, a case of WetWipes and cheap cellulose sponges. A handle of Fabuloso, bundle of paper towels and 2 gallon freezer grade ziplocks to put used cleaning stuff into. A Big Lots type of buy.

Diarrhea is pretty common with temps. That some confirmed have had diarrhea isn’t surprising. Folks get stress related diarrhea (think Adriana in The Sopranos, she was hourly potty stops towards her finale). If it’s all this, I’m not worried. Butt (pun intended) if 2019-nCOV goes fecal transmission, that gonna be hard to get control on. Schools, stores, gyms, movie theaters, libraries, really anything requiring public bathrooms to be open will likely close. More telecommuting for work.

On another forum I’m on, huge discussion on unprecedented move China did on 1/24 with movie theaters. This is what had me thinking about non-airborne transmission. What China did was close every single movie theatre. 70,000 screens. 1B loss estimates for first week closure as this was over Chinese New Year. Which is like going to movies are for Xmas here. Think all movie screens close down simultaneously in US & Canada. Then double that. Huge. But why theatres when schools, stores left open. Opinions were that lots of various foodstuffs, market like vendors, lousy bathrooms unless your in a very western style one, and your there 2-3 hrs so going to use public bathroom. Only at end of day does anything get cleaned. I bet done in an abundance of caution if fecal transmission might could be.

The WHO has an “F diagram” how fecal happens. Quite informative but graphic. Hard to contain as everyone has their own acceptability on what “hygiene” is. Really the first time I saw a “squat” toilet, I so freaked out. Finding a field was better.

Paint supply stores seem to still have masks. I’d add couple boxes of medical grade gloves & Tena liners to my prepper shopping list just to be more ready. Really I think by Feb 18-20 at latest we should know what transmission path actually is & hard data on confirmed/ recovered / dead. Everybody wash your hands, clean your kitchen & bathrooms & do laundry!

Look up "flu deaths 2019/2020 and you may find that a lot more people have died from the "regular flu" than the Cornoavirus. This is just my take, but I have been in health care over 20 years at a major hospital. every year we have the deadly disease of the year.. only talking about the US here, but... remember SARS? Swine Flu? Ebola? ( heck my hospital added a entire floor to deal with that,, never been used..) We have better hygene here, and overall less crowded population in most areas, And often better overall health. Just keep washing your hands and don't touch your face ( easier said than done I know) Like TN I also have a lot of food, etc stockpiled, but we also live in a rural area and lose power for days at a time,, and I hate to shop.. LOL If you are really worried buy yourself some face masks,, but please don't panic!

From FOX this afternoon:

"In addition to respiratory droplets, the novel coronavirus that has sickened thousands globally may also transmit through the digestive tract, specifically the fecal-oral route, according to a report.

Scientists from the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Science recently discovered “virus genetic material” in stool samples and rectal swabs from some patients, Chinese state media reported, according to Bloomberg.

Some patients infected with the novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, had reported diarrhea when they first fell ill, and not a fever, which has been a more common sign of the pneumonia-like illness. The finding is significant because researchers have largely focused on transmission via respiratory droplets from an infected person.

The first of the now 11 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the U.S. had suffered from diarrhea before falling ill with the disease, according to Bloomberg."

The numbers for coronavirus posted this afternoon by both CNN and FOX are 361 deaths out of 17,300 infections or a 2.08% death rate equals 208+ people for every 1000 infections, mostly in China.

Common flu has a death rate of 0.13% or 13 deaths for every 1000 infections in the USA. If the China death rate holds in more developed countries, coronavirus would be MORE THAN 15 TIMES as deadly as the common flu.

You may think the death rate would be lower in industrial countries, and it may be initially; however, as more people are infected and our health care systems are overloaded, the death rate may match China's as people survive from their own resources with more family and self care than medical care.

Consider what happens when flu season peaks or a bad storm is expected. Now multiply that by at least 15. If illness has a significant impact on transportation systems it could be even worse.

If my memory serves, historically pandemics occur every 80-120 years and the Spanish flu went around the world from 1917-1919 so we might be due for another pandemic.

In my parents' home, my mother raised and canned or filled a freezer from a garden. The basement pump room contained much of the food our family needed for 6-10 months except for flour and sugar which Mom had 3-6 months supply in the pantry. When the avian flu scare and Katrina came along, the family had 5 small children and I realized everyone had grown so accustomed to just in time shopping, we could all go hungry if a pandemic or weather event interrupted transportation services for more than a few days.

So I started stock piling some extra medications (OTC and scripts), food, bottled water, filters and purification tablets (for using the well or creek on my property instead of the regional utility water), and electrolyte drink mixes. Recently I added incontinence supplies and white vinegar. I don't raise a garden or do major canning, but I have some home canned food including concentrated chicken and beef broth. I've been stocking up on pasta and 12 oz cans of chicken for a protein base as well as a few cases of canned evaporated milk, vegetables and soups with dehydrated onions and other seasonings. If I lose power, I have a propane stove and could save the contents of my freezer with canning. I also have a whole house generator and an underground propane tank to fuel it for a while. With my asthma, I'm not likely to survive any major respiratory infection, but my supplies could enable me to avoid an infection by quarantining myself or provide better odds for the grandchildren. The Spanish flu often killed more by dehydration than respiratory distress.

The extended family (as I sure many of you will too) views this stock piling habit with amusement. A few years back my nephew showed up at my door one afternoon to collect some pedialyte because his three children under 5 (including a 10 month old) were ill during peak flu season and he couldn't find any in the local or nearby major city stores (he had visited a few and called others). He seems a bit more understanding since needing to access the stock pile. A 3 day stay over when a winter ice storm prevented his family from getting to their rural home gave another nephew an appreciation for a whole house generator and a fully stocked freezer.

While I agree coronavirus has not become a major concern outside of China yet, it does have the potential to become one and the death rate is alarming if it holds over larger infected populations. Since I stock pile routinely, surely it won't surprised anyone if I recommend everyone consider stocking up on a few weeks of basic supplies so self quarantine is an available option.

I heard a news report from Wuhan this morning that - charmingly to me, at least - stated that the only people who were cashing in on the shutdown were restaurants and food delivery drivers.

Sending delivery drivers from household to household is not exactly my idea of rigorous quarantine. Still! - it's extended the New Year holiday, plus it makes people feel that at least they're doing *something.*

In that it is already being detected worldwide, this coronavirus is a pandemic. Most sufferers feel a bit rubbish for a few days. Your odds of survival are excellent.

Don't forget that in order to estimate the lethality of a given infection, you have first to know how many people die out of the total number infected. If virtually everybody in a massive city has caught it but most people aren't even ill enough to have told a doctor about it, it's not that lethal - even if dozens or hundreds in total have died.

Thought I'd better look it up just to be sure:

Information about the virus
A coronavirus is a type of virus. As a group, coronaviruses are common across the world. Typical symptoms of coronavirus include fever and a cough that may progress to a severe pneumonia causing shortness of breath and breathing difficulties.
Generally, coronavirus can cause more severe symptoms in people with weakened immune systems, older people, and those with long-term conditions like diabetes, cancer and chronic lung disease.
Novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is a new strain of coronavirus first identified in Wuhan City, China.

I don't who reported that this new virus is killing 20% of its victims. I'm pretty sure it isn't. As far as I can found out, it is estimated to have killed approximately 200 people so far in China, altogether. I expect those people's families are still pretty cut up about it, mind, I don't mean to say "no big deal" or anything.

The World Health Organization has this link for public information:

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

I think we need to see where the #s are in another 20 days. That gives 14 days incubation period & a week+ for labs done to see if it’s actually 2019nCOVs rather than flu & to get data run & recorded.

I’m more concerned if it’s moving into fecal transmission. The N95 masks & handwashing do work for respiratory / airborne stuff. They work well for TB, SARS, flu. Are great for dealing with pollution or odd air situations (like pepper roasting). They work well if used correctly.
But if this goes fecal, it’s imo is going to be way way lots harder to control. China, like other parts of the world, still has “squat” toilets. In rural areas and older housing especially. If you’ve never encountered them, well it’s pretty horrific. It takes sh** show to a whole new definition. Sanitary they are not. Often the water tank is also the source of household water & drawn communally from. So if tank empty, no “flushing”. I think this is why provinces are being closed off; so controlling both airborne & fecal.

I’m watching: www.gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com
Its really so far just Hubei province (where Wuhan is) that has the scary #s. Feb 18-20 should tell if true pandemic imo.

Btw current administration, in 2018, totally eliminated the US govt. pandemic response team led by Ronald Klain. The complex crisis fund (30M) was eliminated totally. Plus cuts to CDC, NSC, HHS for trans global epidemic response. US not prepared to deal with pandemic. Laurie Garrett at Foreign Policy has great article just out on this.

As I age I view these potentialities more seriously.   And the rapid spread of the Coronavirus is alarming.    If it does become a pandemic, yes, I absolutely will quarantine myself.  I've already got almost enough supplies and food to do that; I always plan on being snowed in at least several times during any winter anyways.   Besides, it's just good common sense.   Pandemics aren't the only threats to a fluid economy and source of goods.

The situation was accelerated by the deliberate ignorance of the Chinese government, suppressing information which could have changed the course of the disease.  

This is the best analytical article I've seen, addressing how Chinese control prevented steps from having been taken earlier.

 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/early-missteps-and-state-secrecy-in-china-probably-allowed-the-coronavirus-to-spread-farther-and-faster/ar-BBZya9o?ocid=spartandhp

I think the reactions of other countries are not only logical and preventive, but send a message to the Chinese government that it's a factor in the rapid spread of the disease.    Totalitarian governments can't expect to ignore critical health factors in this global economy and anticipate that other governments will tolerate its suppression of facts for its own purpose.

Regardless of whether countries are overacting, this sends a message to the Chinese (not that it necessarily will affect a totalitarian regime).   The Chinese are going to lose monetarily b/c of their obsession with controlling the public and the press.   (If you want to see how far control has advanced, watch the PBS documentary on AI).   The 4th section is on Chinese government monitoring of its citizens.

So, yes, I will wear a mask when I go to public areas, not just b/c of the Coronavirus but also because many people in general just don't take appropriate measures for their own health.

Sorry, fewer than 200 deaths so far makes me think this cold virus is not at present much more worrisome than crossing the street at a stop sign in San Francisco on Super Bowl weekend. In fact, not AS dangerous. They say that the reason there is so much going on about this virus is that it is one of those passed from animals to humans, making it more dangerous and more susceptible to very rapid change into something more virulent. Also, this particular cold virus is taking out the more susceptible. In the 1918 flu the worst thing was not just the numbers dying, but the mysterious fact that it was the YOUNG who were dying, the healthy middle aged, not so much the old and very young.
Basically we are looking here at a cold virus. They say we may be missing a lot of the numbers because often those mildly affected (it's a cold) are not reporting. Those who are dying may therefore be seeming like a higher percentage than really exists. NPR and other places has excellent short things about it.
Personally, I am one of those weirdos who think it is a bad thing that man has no natural enemies anymore, worry about overpopulation eventually taking us down. We need culling. But I think this isn't going to be the one to do it.
Of course it MIGHT be. Time will tell. Now, thinking about how few are dead worldwide, this just isn't it.

Why would we quarantine ourselves? We don’t do it for the flu which we are more likely to die from. The news is doing a create job creating hysteria. There are a few confirmed cases in a neighboring county and the news is sensationalizing the hell out of it and not telling people they have a great chance of dying from the flu.

No, lots of panic fueled by the news media.